Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?

Indonesia-China naval drill could help normalize Beijing’s presence east of Taiwan – Radio Free Asia

Indonesia and China carried out a short PASSEX east of Taiwan on Aug. 12 — China’s first joint operation with a foreign navy in those waters, a three-hour exercise with Indonesia’s KRI I Gusti Ngurah Rai-332, signaling a potential normalization of Beijing’s presence around Taiwan despite Indonesia’s traditional stance and ongoing defense ties.

ANALYSIS-Trump's Kim gambit deepens doubts over US reliability at a key moment for Asia | International

Trump’s outreach to North Korea amid his Iran conflict and the pause in joint drills with South Korea are fueling doubts about U.S. reliability in Asia, as partners from Japan, Taiwan, and India reassess how much they can depend on Washington and consider how U.S. security commitments and deterrence in the region may be affected.

China develops missile to target planes thousands of kilometers away - The Japan Times

China has developed hypersonic glide vehicles capable of launching air-to-air weapons and potentially targeting high-value aircraft thousands of kilometers away, marking an expansion of its missile arsenal to multipurpose roles including anti-air, anti-ship, and long-range strike capabilities.

China develops missile to target planes thousands of kilometres away | The Straits Times

China has developed hypersonic glide vehicles that can launch air-to-air missiles and other missiles with extended air-to-air and anti-ship capabilities, enabling long-range strikes on high-value targets thousands of kilometres away (including potential reach to Guam and Hawaii), as part of a broader modernization of its missile arsenal — the world’s largest with over 3,150 ballistic missiles as of 2024 — though using ballistic missiles against air targets presents targeting and escalation challenges.

ANALYSIS: Trump's Kim gambit deepens doubts over US reliability at a key moment for Asia

Trump’s recent moves—cutting back and canceling U.S.–South Korea military drills, delaying arms sales to Taiwan, and signaling flexible, transactional diplomacy with allies—have rattled security ties across Asia (Japan, Taiwan, and India) at a pivotal moment as Washington’s reliability and deterrence against China are questioned, with implications for regional alliances and future defense commitments.

Mainland China’s ship activity near Taiwan hits record for third month in a row | South China Morning Post

Mainland China’s ship activity near Taiwan reached record levels for a third consecutive month in August 2026, with Taiwan reporting 118 mainland government vessel sightings in the first 24 days (surpassing 117 in July and 111 in June), driven by expanded law-enforcement and survey operations east of Taiwan amid Tokyo-Manila maritime boundary talks.

Mainland China's ship activity near Taiwan hits record for third month in a row · Vesper

Mainland China's military and official ship activity around Taiwan has set its third consecutive monthly record, signaling persistent regional pressure linked to Beijing’s sovereignty claims, with Taiwan monitoring closely and planning continued defense preparations as the US and allies watch for impact on regional stability and global trade.

​Nuclear war: still a possibility? - Asia Times

The article argues that despite decades of arms control, tactical nuclear weapons remain a live and evolving risk in Europe, with Russia signaling via nuclear-capable Iskander missiles and warplanes, the U.S. deploying mobile nuclear-capable systems in Europe, ongoing INF-treaty-related weapon evolutions (like LRSO and nuclear Tomahawks), and rising Pentagon anxiety about Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons or escalation in Ukraine amid NATO-Russia tensions.

Trump’s “Economic D-Day” Is Raising the Stakes, From Iran’s Rial to China and Hormuz

The article argues that the U.S. is launching a far-reaching “Economic D-Day” against Iran—straining its rial, expanding sanctions to cut Tehran’s economic lifelines, pressuring China as Iran’s key oil customer, and extending risks around the Strait of Hormuz—with the aim of forcing a political deal Iran can accept, though the move risks broader regional and economic fallout.

US is building a fortress around China. Its shrinking missile stocks could be the weak link - The Times of India

The article argues that the US is rapidly rebuilding its depleted stocks of precision-guided munitions and air-defense interceptors to deter China, by a strategy of island fortifications and a "precise mass" approach—rapidly producing cheap drones and sensors to sustain combat against an expanding Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific.