
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China invade Taiwan before 1st Jan 2026. Otherwise "No".
News
PLA drills demonstrate resolve to reunify - SignalNews
China's PLA conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan in late December 2025, including live-fire exercises and joint operations, as a show of resolve to reunify the island amid increased US arms sales and tensions, emphasizing sovereignty and deterrence against "Taiwan independence" forces.
SignalNewsPLA drills demonstrate resolve to reunify - CapitolBuzz
China's PLA conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan in late December 2025, including live-fire strikes and joint exercises, as a response to US arms sales and perceived threats to sovereignty, demonstrating its resolve to reunify Taiwan and counter external interference.
CapitolBuzzAmbassador Alexander Tah-Ray Yui: China's threat to Taiwan is ongoing
Taiwan’s ambassador to the U.S. warns that China's active threat to Taiwan persists despite no imminent invasion, emphasizing ongoing military buildup, energy diversification efforts, and the importance of U.S. arms support amid regional tensions and China's regional ambitions.
Laura KellyThe chilling warnings World War Three is closer than you think
Western officials warn that overlapping regional conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia, along with increased alignment between Russia, China, and Iran, suggest the world is gradually approaching a form of interconnected warfare that could lead to a future global conflict, with some experts describing it as being "in the waiting room of World War Three."
Richard Holmes, Jack HillcoxTaiwan Detects PLA Aircraft, PLAN Vessels Near Territory
Taiwan's defense ministry reported Chinese military activity, including two PLA aircraft (one crossing the median line into Taiwan's ADIZ) and eight PLAN vessels operating near its territory over recent days, amid ongoing tensions rooted in complex historical sovereignty disputes.
NaveenPLA drills demonstrate resolve to reunify - Vibenow
China's PLA conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan in late December 2025, including live-fire exercises and joint operations, as a response to US arms sales and perceived threats to sovereignty, demonstrating its resolve to reunify with Taiwan and warning against "Taiwan independence" efforts.
VibenowLai reveals nuclear power revival plan - Taipei Times
Taiwan's President William Lai announced plans to revive nuclear power by submitting restart proposals for the Guosheng and Ma-anshan nuclear plants, reversing the country's previous phase-out policy, with safety and public consensus remaining key considerations.
Exchanges with Taiwan parties to strengthen - TrendForce
The article reports on renewed cross-Strait exchanges, including high-level meetings between Chinese and Taiwanese officials, the resumption of interparty dialogue between the CPC and KMT, and the upcoming normalization of travel between Shanghai and Taiwan, all aimed at strengthening cooperation and promoting peaceful integration.
TrendForce中共沒有2027攻台計畫?曝1原因「風險過高」 他示警:沒來的狼還是狼 | 政治 | 三立新聞網 SETN.COM
The article reports that China does not have a planned attack on Taiwan in 2027 due to the high risks involved, with experts warning that even if such plans are not publicly confirmed, China remains a threat.
三立新聞網PLA drills demonstrate resolve to reunify - TrendForce
China's PLA has conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan since August 2022, including recent live-fire exercises and joint operations, in response to US arms sales and perceived threats to sovereignty, demonstrating its resolve to reunify Taiwan and counter external interference.
TrendForce
