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December 31, 2025
Vol: $16

Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?

Outcome

%Chance

Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?

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Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China invade Taiwan before 1st Jan 2026. Otherwise "No".

News

about 13 hours ago

Trump, Xi, and the Case for Strategic Calm | Foreign Affairs

The article explains that despite recent a trade war truce between the U.S. and China driven by mutual interests to buy time, the underlying strategic competition continues, with the U.S. needing to rebuild its capacity to effectively counter China's growing global influence during this fragile period of calmer relations.

1 day ago

China eyes AI dominance, Taiwan leverage: Tulsi Gabbard​

China aims to surpass the US as the leading global AI power by 2030, while rapidly modernizing its military to potentially seize Taiwan by force, though it appears to prefer peaceful reunification.

IANS Agency
1 day ago

台海戰雲消散? 美國最新威脅評估:中國未計劃2027年對台動武

The latest U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, favoring non-military methods for unification, and the possibility of an invasion within the next two years has decreased.

1 day ago

川普當局軟化對華姿態 情報機構推翻台海爆發戰爭的時間預測 | 大陸政經 | 兩岸 | 經濟日報

A new U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that China no longer has a fixed timetable or plans for military action to unify Taiwan by 2027, favoring non-military means and reducing previous predictions of imminent conflict.

經濟日報
1 day ago

美情報評估中國未計畫2027年攻台 府:和平靠實力 | 政治 | 中央社 CNA

The U.S. intelligence report states China currently has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, but China continues military development and planning to achieve unification, prompting Taiwan to strengthen its defense through increased military spending and a policy of "peace through strength."

中央通訊社
1 day ago

China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027: US intel report

Glaan Sibuyi
1 day ago

2026 Annual Threat Assessment: 16,000 missiles, a vengeful Iran, and an AI race America cannot afford to lose: 2026 threat assessment, explained | World News - The Times of India

The 2026 Threat Assessment warns of a fivefold increase in missile threats to the U.S., escalating tensions with Iran seeking revenge, ongoing Middle East conflicts, and a global AI race that the U.S. must prioritize to maintain dominance.

TOI World Desk / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Mar 20, 2026, 00:12 IST
1 day ago

新聞幕後/美情報指「中國2027年侵台計畫延後」 我國安官員曝兩大主因 | 政治 | 三立新聞網 SETN.COM

美國情報指出中國計畫於2027年侵台的行動已被延後,原因主要包括兩大因素,相關台灣安全官員透露詳細情況。

三立新聞網
1 day ago

美評估中國「無2027攻台計畫」 府盼強化防衛1.25兆別卡關 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報

The U.S. assessment indicates China has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, prompting Taiwan's government to emphasize strengthening self-defense and expedite defense legislation and budgets amidst ongoing regional military threats.

自由時報電子報
1 day ago

美情報機構最新報告 中國現階段無2027侵台計畫 | 公視新聞網 PNN

The U.S. intelligence report states China currently has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, despite ongoing military modernization and recent Chinese maritime incursions near Dongsha Island, while Taiwan emphasizes strengthening its defenses and resilience to maintain peace.

方雋淮

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