Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?

China's Mythos Moment

China’s AI policy arc mirrors Mythos-like models with a state-led rollout: regulators and CAC tighten oversight, restrict overseas access, and, after early private sector access and risk mitigation, push a split model approach—on-prem government deployments of a powerful GLM 6 with a publicly lobotomized version for general use, while expanding regulatory controls and reporting requirements.

Moonshot: Why President Xi Calls for Global AI Governance | Cybersecurity Magazine

Moonshot’s Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-model with vision and a 1-million-token context window, claims frontier-level performance and outperforms OpenAI GPT-5.5 and Anthropic Opus 4.8 on most benchmarks while China’s Xi Jinping calls for a shared, global governance framework and coordinated regulation of AI, amid tensions over alleged IP theft and fierce competition with US frontier models.

China's Coast Guard Rehearses Blockade Tools as Taiwan Plans Counter-Drills

Taiwan plans joint navy-coast guard drills to defend Pacific shipping lanes amid a sharp June surge in Chinese coast guard activity near Taiwan, including ~200 vessel queries and 55 government vessel sightings, signaling possible blockade scenarios that Taipei has started rehearsing publicly, while Western nations voiced concern over Beijing’s coast guard actions.

A record number of Chinese vessels have been spotted near Taiwan | UA.NEWS

A record number of Chinese government vessels (55 in June) were spotted near Taiwan, with Taipei warning of potential naval pressure and rehearsals for a blockade, as Beijing expands use of coast guard and other ships to assert near-territorial presence and Taiwan readies new naval exercises and defenses of sea lanes.

Taiwan Says Chinese Vessel Activity Jumped By 120% Near Island

Taiwan reports a 120% year-over-year and 83% month-over-month jump in Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around Taiwan in June, prompting planning of drills and warning of heightened blockade risk as Beijing expands coast guard operations near the island, raises tensions, and pressures shipping while insisting Taiwan has no sovereignty rights.

EDITORIAL: China’s economic uncertainty - Taipei Times

China’s economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 (4.7% H1), underperforming expectations and highlighting weak domestic demand and investment despite strong exports, with policymakers weighing selective stimulus amid a slowing, export-dependent growth model and looming Politburo guidance for H2.

China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.

The article argues that the US should rethink its approach to AI leadership in light of China’s open-weight models like Moonshot.AI’s Kimi K3 and GLM 5.2, and outlines seven policy options—ranging from doing nothing and preserving OpenAI/Anthropic, to regulatory “moats,” bailing out labs, banning Chinese models, buying labs to convert them into public research facilities, or outlawing closed-source AI and fostering global public-good commitments.

Standard Chartered: HK GDP to hit 4.3pc in 2026, fueled by AI supercycle and mainland stimulus

Standard Chartered Hong Kong expects HK GDP to grow 4.3% in 2026, driven by an AI supercycle, stronger capital, property and employment markets, improving consumer sentiment, more IPOs, and rising tourism, with HK interest rates around 2.8–3% HIBOR in H2 and China’s 2026 growth seen at about 4.5–4.6% amid anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus.

China Coast Guard Strikes Filipino Sailor at Ayungin Shoal

A Filipino military serviceman was struck on the head with a wooden baton by Chinese Coast Guard personnel near Ayungin Shoal (West Philippine Sea), injuring him, in an incident described as violent and unlawful by the Philippines’ NTF-WPS, as Beijing and UNCLOS disputes continue amid ongoing tensions and diplomacy.

Taiwan Reports Significant Surge in Chinese Vessel Activity Near Its Waters | Outlook India

Taiwan reports a sharp rise in Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity near its waters in June (55 sightings, up from 30 in May), including repurposed naval ships and “lawfare” calls to merchant ships, prompting Taipei to plan joint navy-coast guard drills to protect Pacific supply routes and prepare for potential blockades.