
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by 2026?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China invade Taiwan before 1st Jan 2026. Otherwise "No".
News
Taiwan Confident U.S. Arms Sale Review Remains on Track Despite Trump's China Trip Delay - EconoTimes
Taiwan remains confident that the review of U.S. arms sales to the island is progressing as planned, despite delays caused by former President Trump's trip to China.
Trump call for Chinese warships hits sensitive topic for Xi - The Japan Times
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Chinese warships has sparked sensitive concerns for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, highlighting escalating tensions over military and geopolitical issues between the two nations.
Peter MartinSale of second U.S. arms package believed to be on schedule, says Taiwan - The Japan Times
Taiwan reports that the U.S. is on schedule to deliver its second arms package, signaling ongoing military support amid regional tensions.
No AuthorTrump-Xi dynamics keep Taiwan on alert amid summit uncertainty - Nikkei Asia
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay his planned visit to Beijing amid ongoing Iran tensions has heightened uncertainty for Taiwan, as regional analysts and officials remain alert to potential implications of U.S.-China dynamics and upcoming summit developments.
Trump-Xi summit timing draws focus in Taiwan | Taiwan News | Mar. 17, 2026 15:43
The timing of a potential Trump-Xi summit is attracting significant attention in Taiwan amid ongoing regional tensions.
Russia's War in Ukraine: Can It Last Until 2026? Military Think Tank Analysis (2026)
Russia's war in Ukraine is expected to continue until at least 2026, supported by sustained high military spending, ongoing development of new weaponry and tactics, and strategic considerations around troop recruitment and NATO defense enhancements.
卡特中心民調:多數中國民眾傾向不對台動武,86%支持加強文化交流 - TNL The News Lens 關鍵評論網
A recent Carter Center poll reveals that most Chinese citizens favor non-military approaches to Taiwan, with 86% supporting increased cultural exchanges and 81% endorsing limited military actions rather than full-scale invasion, while also showing a generally friendly attitude toward Taiwan and a preference for resolving cross-strait issues through diplomacy.
中央通訊社Taiwan detects 2 PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN vessels, 1 official ship around its territory - The Times of India
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence reported the detection of 2 PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN vessels, and 1 official ship operating around its territory, with some entries into Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ, amid ongoing regional tensions.
ANI / Updated: Mar 17, 2026, 10:46 ISTCathay Financial ups 2026 GDP growth forecast for Taiwan to 5.8% - Focus Taiwan
Cathay Financial has revised Taiwan's 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to 5.8%, driven by the AI boom, but warns that rising crude oil prices and global uncertainties could reduce growth and increase inflation.
(By Lu Yen-tzu and Frances Huang) Enditem/lsHow China's analysts view the US-Iran war - Asia Times
The article discusses China's cautious, pragmatic stance on the US-Israel pre-emptive attack on Iran, highlighting China's non-intervention policy, economic interests in Iran and the region, and Chinese analysts' perspectives viewing the conflict as driven by US and Israeli military ambitions and strategic miscalculations.
Cherry Hitkari
