
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
Acting President of Venezuela at Military Ceremony: ‘Our Main Victory is Unity’ – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodríguez launched the Simón Bolívar training cruise, emphasizing unity, resilience, and national sovereignty amid ongoing military reorganization following US aggression.
orinocotribuneNot like Venezuela: why Iran is likely to survive US-Israeli strikes | South China Morning Post
Despite targeted US-Israeli strikes killing numerous Iranian officials, Iran is expected to remain resilient due to its solid political system, contrasting with Venezuela's collapse, amid ongoing regional tensions and oil price impacts.
Trump’s ‘Venezuela solution’ to Cuba would see the island nation returned to a client state | News | djournal.com
The article discusses former President Trump's proposal for a "Venezuela solution" to Cuba, which would involve returning the island nation to a client state aligned with external powers, potentially perpetuating unequal relations and undermining Cuba's sovereignty.
Joseph J. Gonzalez, Appalachian State UniversityTrump’s ‘Venezuela solution’ to Cuba would see the island nation returned to a client state
The article discusses how Donald Trump's potential efforts to depose Cuba's government could revert the island to a subordinate, client-state relationship reminiscent of pre-revolutionary U.S. dominance, reversing recent diplomatic progress and heightening tensions between the two nations.
Joseph J. GonzalezRubio to testify in trial of ex-roommate with alleged Maduro government ties
Senator Marco Rubio is set to testify in the trial of his former roommate, who is accused of having ties to the Maduro government in Venezuela.
Claire CarterVenezuela forgets about Maduro and starts down an irreversible path | International | EL PAÍS English
Venezuela is undergoing a significant political shift as Nicolás Maduro's influence diminishes and Delcy Rodríguez consolidates power, signaling an irreversible change in the country's leadership dynamics despite ongoing uncertainty about its future direction.
María MartínBombs will not break Iran — but its elites might
The article argues that Iran's regime is more likely to withstand short-term military pressure unless such conflict causes elite defections within the Revolutionary Guard and ruling establishment, which could lead to a broader regime collapse.
Dr. Mordechai ChazizaIs Cuba about to collapse? : Here & Now Anytime : NPR
The NPR article discusses concerns about Cuba's potential collapse amid U.S. pressure campaigns, economic challenges from ongoing conflicts like the Iran war, and insights from experts on Cuba's political stability and broader U.S.-Cuba relations.
Exclusive: Ayatollah Fled to Russia, IRGC Has Taken Control | Newsmax.com
Iran’s civilian leadership has been sidelined, with the IRGC now controlling major decisions; Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded and evacuated to Russia, amid rising tensions involving Russia’s potential intervention and threats to Iran’s economy and energy infrastructure.
Iran seems like a political disaster for Trump. Except I just saw the data.
Despite numerous predictions of Donald Trump's political downfall over the years, recent developments—including his involvement in an unpopular and costly war in Iran—are now leading some commentators to suggest that his presidency and influence may be nearing an end.
Ian Prasad Philbrick
