
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
Venezuela's Maduro, US Justice Department propose June 2027 trial start | The Straits Times
Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who are facing U.S. drug-trafficking charges, proposed in a Manhattan federal court filing on July 21, 2026, that Maduro’s trial begin in June 2027, with initial motions due September 2 and a second round by January 11 after prosecutors disclose classified evidence.
Trial date proposed for ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro - NewsBreak
Federal prosecutors and Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores' defense have proposed a June 2027 trial date for their narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking case, with a detailed pre-trial timetable including dismissal motions on sovereign immunity by September and most non-classified evidence already turned over, while the court could set schedules this week and potential delays remain possible due to classified materials.
Peter CharalambousVenezuela's Maduro, US propose June 2027 start for drug trafficking trial - The Economic Times
Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have pleaded not guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges, and they and U.S. prosecutors jointly proposed a June 2027 start date for the trial, with U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein to set the schedule ahead of a Manhattan court hearing.
Venezuela's Maduro, US Justice Department propose June 2027 trial start | The Star
Maduro and the U.S. Justice Department proposed a June 2027 start date for Maduro’s U.S. criminal trial on drug trafficking charges, with initial motions due September 2 (likely including a sovereign immunity challenge) and a second round by January 11 after the government provides classified evidence.
Venezuela's Maduro back in court for hearing in drug trafficking case | AP News
Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores return to a New York court for a pretrial hearing on U.S. drug-trafficking charges, maintaining not guilty pleas and challenging the legality of Maduro’s forcible transfer, with no bail request and no trial date set.
June 2027 trial date proposed as ousted Venezuelan president due back in Manhattan court - ABC News
Prosecutors and defense lawyers for ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores are proposing a June 2027 trial date in their narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking case, with a planned schedule for pre-trial motions, classified evidence turnover, and potential delays, after earlier disputes over defense funding and ongoing sovereign immunity motions.
ABC NewsUS Captures Maduro: Bitcoin's Role in Venezuela's Future (2026)
The article reports that U.S. forces arrested Nicolás Maduro in an operation framed as law enforcement, triggering a drop in oil prices and a rally in Chevron, while Venezuela increasingly relies on cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins, to bypass sanctions and settle trades amid economic collapse—with potential crypto-linked risks and signals to watch (stablecoin demand, intermediary concentration, and network behavior) as the regime reportedly may have accumulated crypto holdings up to about $60 billion.
Ousted Venezuelan President Maduro’s Wednesday Court Hearing: What We Know - Newsweek
Nicolás Maduro, ousted Venezuelan president, is in a New York federal court for a status conference on pretrial matters related to a superseding indictment accusing him and his wife Cilia Flores of narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking, with Maduro pleading not guilty, while Venezuela remains led by acting President Delcy Rodríguez and the case raises questions of sovereignty and international law amid ongoing U.S. efforts to prepare for trial.
US Floats Election Date for Venezuela
A U.S.-backed process begins in August to discuss a possible political transition in Venezuela, aiming to build a shared roadmap for institutional reform, electoral guarantees, and eventually free elections, with talks involving the 2015 National Assembly and the current interim government, amid ongoing crisis and humanitarian challenges.
Josep FreixesBREAKING: US Captures Venezuelan President Maduro - Trump Announces Airstrikes & Operation Details (2026)
The article reports that US President Trump claimed Maduro and his wife were captured after US airstrikes in Venezuela, prompting Venezuelan demands for proof of life and international debate over sovereignty and legitimacy under Article 51.

