
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
Petro to give farewell speech amid Colombia transfer-of-power tensions - Bahamas Spectator – Bahamas & Caribbean News, Travel & Business
Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro plans a public farewell address amid post-election tensions as transfer-of-power issues unfold, including a dispute over the inauguration location, Petro’s rejection of a military-base oath, allegations of foreign interference he cites against Israel, and the incoming president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s plans to move the inauguration and restore ties with Israel, with Petro signaling a peaceful transition but declining to attend the August 7 ceremony.
Spain Wins. Trump Is Losing.
Trump’s War in Iran-era tensions has failed to achieve strategic aims, with U.S. casualties rising, mounting costs (about $113 billion), depleted stockpiles, damaged credibility, higher U.S. gas prices, and Iran gaining regional influence, while Washington debates ending the conflict as Congress weighs steps to halt further escalation.
William KristolExiled Venezuelan Leader Machado Blocked From Return Amid Devastating Earthquake Crisis | Streamline
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was blocked from returning home after landing rights were revoked mid-flight amid a devastating 7.0 earthquake crisis in Venezuela, highlighting deep political deadlock and external pressures following a U.S.-backed removal of Maduro.
Streamline Feed OfficialExigen que Jorge Rodríguez declare falta absoluta de Maduro y convoque elecciones
A group of lawyers filed a constitutional action with Venezuela’s Supreme Court demanding that Jorge Rodríguez, head of the National Assembly, convene an extraordinary session to declare Nicolás Maduro’s absolute vacancy “by factual abandonment” and order elections, arguing the Assembly has paralyzed the state and requesting the electoral authorities be notified to initiate a presidential election under Article 233.
REDACCIÓN/Diario Las AméricasPetro to give farewell speech amid Colombia transfer-of-power tensions | Elections News | Al Jazeera
Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro plans a public farewell address amid tensions over the recent closely contested election and the upcoming transfer of power to President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, who seeks to move his inauguration to a southern military base but is opposed by Petro, as disputes over foreign interference, security, and bilateral ties with Israel dominate the transition ahead of August 7.
Al Jazeera StaffDaniel Ortega: “Nicaragua Will Never Again Have Elections” - Havana Times
Daniel Ortega declared that there will never again be elections in Nicaragua, vowing to work with a Sandinista-controlled National Assembly to block opposition and defend the government, amid recent constitutional changes extending the presidential term to six years and ongoing state-reinforced power ahead of elections in November 2027.
Circles RobinsonUkraine’s protesters set a 24 July deadline as Zelenskyy weighs replacing his army chief - Euromaidan Press
Protesters in Ukraine have set a 24 July deadline demanding the reinstatement of dismissed defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov and the removal of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, threatening nightly rallies if their demands are not met, while Zelenskyy weighs replacing Syrskyi and has not yet appointed a successor, with Parliament currently unable to fill the defense post amid martial law.
Peeter HelmeHow success in Venezuela set Trump up for disaster in Iran | Vox
Trump’s Venezuela regime-change success—installing a pliant leader, maintaining U.S. control over its oil revenues, and projecting influence—has emboldened him to pursue Iran similarly, but Iran has resisted and remains autonomous, complicating the notion that regime change can be easily replicated.
Joshua KeatingVenezuela: US Court Rules Against Maduro, State Officials, Awards Damages to Former Prisoners - Venezuelanalysis
A US federal court in Florida ruled against Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and several current and former state officials in a default judgment awarding $314 million (about $312.5M for kidnapping and torture under ATA plus $1.5M in RICO damages) to three US prisoners who were released in a 2023 swap, with additional defendants including high-ranking officials and state-owned PDVSA and CVP; immunity and asset challenges noted, and the defendants have not disclosed assets or a strategy to collect.
ricardoMeet the New Boss: Andy Burnham Installed as UK Prime Minister
Andy Burnham has been installed as UK Prime Minister, succeeding Keir Starmer, delivering a nationally televised address from Downing Street that framed his rise as a moment to restore stability after unprecedented turnover, while pledging a 10-year plan to rebuild Britain with increased public control and reindustrialisation, despite questions about his mandate and policy specifics.
Kurt Zindulka
