
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
Can Cuba’s regime survive as US chokes oil supplies? | The Straits Times
The article reports that Cuba's regime faces imminent collapse due to a US-imposed fuel blockade following Venezuela's capture of Maduro, with Cuba experiencing severe shortages, blackouts, and humanitarian crises, while the US aims to weaken or overthrow the government.
Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez Appoints Sanctioned Official as Defense Minister (2026)
Venezuela's Delcy Rodríguez appointed sanctioned official Gustavo González López as Defense Minister in 2026, signaling a strategic shift towards integrating military intelligence with security leadership to reinforce regime control amid ongoing international sanctions.
The decades-long resilience of Cuba's government in jeopardy over Trump administration's siege | AP News
The article reports that U.S. sanctions and a naval siege under the Trump administration have severely disrupted Cuba’s trade and energy supplies, causing widespread blackouts and medical shortages, threatening the longstanding resilience of Cuba’s government amid ongoing efforts to force regime change.
Au Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez écarte un fidèle de Nicolas Maduro
Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez dismissed longtime defense minister Vladimir Padrino, a close Maduro ally, amid national celebrations and political shifts, while Padrino faces US accusations of corruption and drug trafficking.
US push for Western Hemisphere dominance could extend to Cuba, Nicaragua | The Jerusalem Post
The article reports that U.S. efforts under Trump's proposed "Donroe" Doctrine aim to establish Western Hemisphere dominance by replacing regime leaders with pro-American governments in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, amid escalating tensions, regional crises, and efforts to curb Chinese and Russian influence.
Trade with Cuba collapses as Trump escalates pressure on Communist Party leadership | National News | wdrb.com
The Trump administration has severely restricted trade with Cuba, effectively crippling supplies of oil, food, and other goods, leading to widespread blackouts and medical shortages, as part of its broader effort to pressure regime change in the country.
JOSHUA GOODMAN - Associated PressColombia eyes security gains after Maduro’s fall | Miami Herald
Colombia sees a strategic opportunity to enhance security cooperation, disrupt drug trafficking, and revive economic ties with Venezuela following Maduro’s fall and the new regional political landscape.
Pedro PortalThere Will Be No Post-Presidential Peace for Donald Trump | The New Republic
The article argues that Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by actions resembling fascism and oligarchy, including political corruption, threats to democratic institutions, abuse of power, and efforts to undermine American democracy, with no signs of post-presidential peace.
Matt FordVenezuela Used $64 Billion in Oil Wealth to Build Cuban-Led Repressive Security Apparatus, Report Says
Venezuela allocated $64 billion in oil wealth over two decades to develop a Cuban-led security and intelligence system that suppresses dissent and consolidates political control, with Cuban advisers playing a central role in transforming Venezuela's security agencies into tools of repression.
Pedro Camacho / Published Mar 19 2026, 4:13 PM EDTNach Maduros Festnahme: Rodríguez stärkt ihre Macht im Militär
Delcy Rodríguez consolidates her power in Venezuela by replacing key military and government officials, including the abrupt removal of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and appointment of loyalists like Gustavo González López, amid ongoing regime strengthening following Nicolás Maduro's detention.
Alexander Busch, São Paulo
