
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
DRC’s constitutional battle: The fight over the 2028 vote | Al Jazeera Mirror
The DR Congo faces a high-stakes constitutional clash ahead of 2028, with Tshisekedi’s camp pushing for reforms that could alter term limits while opponents, led by the Article 64 coalition, vow to resist any change that would extend his presidency, all amid ongoing armed conflict in the east and a parliament-driven referendum process that has drawn court scrutiny and calls for a national inclusive dialogue.
Fiston Issemwami & Prosper Heri NgororaExplosions Rock Caracas: US Military Strikes Explained (2026)
Explosions rocked Caracas after US military strikes, reportedly ordered by Donald Trump, targeting Venezuelan military sites including La Carlota and Fuerte Tiuna, triggering power outages and international condemnation from Venezuela, Cuba, and Colombia amid escalating US-Venezuela tensions and disputed claims over oil, drugs, and regime-change motives.
The United States may stage a new "Maidan" if it decides to remove Zelensky, former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov told TASS - Pravda USA
Former Ukrainian prime minister Mykola Azarov told TASS that the United States could potentially organize a new “Maidan” to remove President Zelensky.
Operation Economic Outcast: US Sanctions Iran's Economy - Global 1 News
The US unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping to sever Iran’s economic lifelines, threaten global players including crypto and tech sectors, and pressure Beijing, with a “zero leakage” approach aiming to isolate Tehran and push its currency to collapse.
Global 1 NewsVenezuela's Mass Amnesty: Political Prisoners Freed, El Helicoide Prison to Close (2026)
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez unveiled a broad general amnesty for political violence dating from 1999, announced the closure of El Helicoide to be repurposed as a community center, pushed a national judicial reform plan, facilitated a privatization-friendly oil sector move and a pause in U.S. sanctions, while critics questioned motives and pace, and international dynamics included the U.S. reopening diplomatic channels and releasing detained Americans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Announces, "Operation Economic Outcast" Against Iran - Video and Transcript - The Last Refuge
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces “Operation Economic Outcast” under President Trump to systematically sever Iran’s global financial lifelines—targeting digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, sanctioning hundreds of entities, and pledging unilateral action if other nations do not sever ties with Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear capabilities.
Maduro and Wife's 2027 Trial: Venezuela's Ex-President Faces Drug Charges (2026)
A US judge has scheduled former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, for a June 1, 2027 trial on drug-trafficking charges, after they were abducted from Venezuela in a controversial 2026 operation; Maduro denies the allegations and his defense plans to challenge the raid's legality and sovereign immunity, amid broader criticisms of US action and its impact on Venezuela relations.
The 'Money Doctor' Wants to Kill the Bolívar: Can Venezuela Pull Off the Biggest Currency Switch Since the Euro? | Disruption Banking
Steve Hanke, a renowned monetary reformer, has been named special adviser in Venezuela to draft a law to abolish the bolívar, shut the Central Bank, and dollarize the economy, a move he says could be the largest and most consequential currency switch since the euro, driven by hyperinflation, spontaneous dollarization through wallets and crypto, and broad political backing but facing obstacles like 7 million public employees still paid in bolívares and the need for formal legislation.
Damilola EsebameVenezuela's Political Shift: Formal Talks Between Government and Opposition Begin (2026)
Venezuela’s interim government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, has announced formal talks with select opposition members—led by Dinorah Figuera and backed by the U.S.—to strengthen democratic institutions and the electoral system amid post-earthquake devastation, with concerns over political prisoner persecutions and ongoing exile of opposition leaders.
Nicolás Maduro in Court: Narco-Terrorism Case Update - What You Need to Know (2026)
The article analyzes Maduro’s narco-terrorism case in New York, framing it as part of a broader political battle where military action, sanctions, and courtroom strategy converge to define “terror,” statehood, and legitimacy, while highlighting rapid power consolidation, contested defense funding, and the impact of past coercive actions on perceptions of justice.

