
Maduro out by...?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
31st Jan 2026
31st Jan 2026
30th June 2026
30th June 2026
31st March 2026
31st March 2026
Resolution Criteria
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting."
News
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez Calls for Wide Participation in March 8 Communal Popular Consultation – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez urged widespread community participation in the March 8 Communal National Consultation, emphasizing the country's progress in social programs, food distribution, and the promotion of a diversified economy through community and entrepreneurial efforts, while advocating for national unity and the resumption of black bean production.
orinocotribuneVenezuelans Overwhelmingly Support Chavismo in Upcoming Presidential Elections: Hinterlaces Poll – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
A recent Hinterlaces poll indicates overwhelming support for Chavismo (35%) over opposition parties (9%) among Venezuelans ahead of the July 28 presidential elections, with 90% viewing opposition as divided and lacking credible leadership, while President Maduro is favored for re-election by 55%, contradicting media narratives of declining support for Maduro.
orinocotribuneThe U.S. and Venezuela will stage a "game of fate" for the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC) hegemon.. - MK
Venezuela advanced to its first World Baseball Classic final after defeating Italy 4-2 in Miami, setting up a highly anticipated "game of fate" against the U.S., amid ongoing diplomatic tensions following the recent ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro.
Jihan Kim hanspo@mk.co.krWhy the Regime Hasn’t Collapsed | Alhurra
Despite severe economic decline, internal unrest, and targeted assassinations, the Iranian regime remains resilient, with the IRGC consolidating power through the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader and maintaining control over the war effort, indicating a strengthened regime rather than collapse.
Andres IlvesRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2026 | ISW
Ukrainian forces have made significant advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, capturing over 400 km² since late January 2026, including recent tactical penetrations near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole, which are constraining Russian offensive operations, threatening Russian logistics routes, and prompting Russian forces to switch to defensive tactics.
Adam GraceTrump: Cuba's President Has Got to Go – HotAir
The Trump administration is pushing to remove Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel from power during negotiations, aiming to replace him with a more U.S.-friendly leader while maintaining the existing Communist regime, as part of ongoing efforts to influence Cuba's political and economic future.
John SextonVenezuela Resumes Gas Exports to Colombia; Petro Proposes Lifting Venezuela’s MERCOSUR Suspension – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
Venezuela has resumed LPG exports to Colombia, and Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez and Colombian President Gustavo Petro are working to enhance regional energy cooperation, with Petro proposing the lifting of Venezuela’s MERCOSUR suspension and both countries initiating talks to restore broader infrastructure and trade integration.
orinocotribuneActing President Delcy Rodríguez: US Recognition to Help Venezuela Recover its Right to Life – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
Venezuela's Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced that the US has legally recognized the Venezuelan government, ending the interim government of Juan Guaidó, restoring diplomatic and trade relations, and opening the path for Venezuela to recover over $30 billion in assets, amid calls for national unity and ongoing efforts to rebuild the country's health and economic systems.
orinocotribunePresident Maduro: Essequibo Referendum is Binding and I Will Enforce People’s Decision – Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared the recent consultative referendum on the Essequibo territory, in which over 95% of 10.4 million voters supported the claim, as legally binding and vowed to enforce the people's decision to recover the territory, despite international claims that the referendum was non-binding.
orinocotribuneVance vs Rubio succession fight could cost Republicans the White House - Newsweek
The article discusses the emerging rivalry between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, highlighting Vance's current lead among MAGA supporters and the potential impact their differing policy priorities could have on the future direction of the GOP.

