Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Resolution Criteria
This bet resolves YES if "Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026" occurs by 2026-01-31T23:59, NO otherwise.
News
Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program underground. Will Trump take it out?
Iran is secretly intensifying construction at a deeply buried nuclear site near Natanz known as “Pickaxe Mountain,” defying a fragile U.S.-Iran agreement; Trump has urged a decisive U.S. response, including possible military options to disable the facility and prevent Iran from recovering nuclear capability, with calls for immediate IAEA access and potential joint U.S.-Israel action to eliminate the site.
Andrea StrickerRecent poll shows 58% of Iranians reject war, oppose support for 'Resistance' | النهار
A recent Iran poll shows 58% oppose ongoing support for Tehran’s proxy forces (the Islamic Resistance) and prefer a mix of deterrence and negotiations, while also signaling reduced appetite for war, greater openness to relations with China and Europe, and a drive for gradual reform rather than radical change.
AnnaharMediators Just Handed Iran a Formal Proposal for a Ten-Day Ceasefire — and Tehran's Own Spokesman Confirmed Diplomacy Is in Motion - 19FortyFive
Mediators have presented Iran with a formal proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, Tehran confirmed diplomacy is underway, as fighting continues in the region with U.S. forces sustaining casualties and a broader effort to halt escalation despite ongoing tensions.
Stephen SilverJanuary 2026 Protests:Execution of Erfan Esfandiari and Gol-Mohammad Mohammadi - Hrana
HRANA reports that, per Iran’s Judiciary Media Center via Mizan, Erfan Esfandiari and Gol-Mohammad Mohammadi, who were arrested during the January 2026 Isfahan protests in the Alikhani Square case, were executed at dawn on July 19, 2026; HRANA cautions that independent verification is lacking for the alleged events, trial fairness, and the broader case details, while noting prior reports of mass protests starting December 2025 and extensive crackdowns.
. .U.S. Military Deaths in Iran War Reach 17, Complicating Trump's Midterm Strategy
A rising death toll in the Iran War—now at least 17 U.S. service members killed or missing after attacks in Jordan and Iraq—has intensified anti-war sentiment at home, complicating Trump’s midterm strategy as Congress has moved to urge an end to the conflict and public opinion shifts toward skepticism about the war and its costs.
IRGC pledges 'unforgettable lesson' for US as Iran signals return to talks | Euronews
The IRGC pledged to deliver an “unforgettable lesson” to the US while signaling a possible return to talks if Iran’s interests are respected, as fighting with the US continued, casualties mounted on both sides, diplomacy remained formally open with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the previous framework deal, and Iran insisted on defending its positions despite ongoing hostilities.
How success in Venezuela set Trump up for disaster in Iran | Vox
The Vox article argues that the US, under Trump, successfully regime-changed Venezuela by ousting Maduro and installing a pliant vice president, effectively controlling the country through Rubio, while hoping to similarly decisively topple Iran, but Iran has resisted and remains autonomous, casting doubt on the durability and consequences of US-led interventions.
Joshua KeatingIran's foreign minister details pre-war nuclear talks, military contingency planning - The Herald Business
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the US demanded zero percent uranium enrichment during pre-war talks, rejected diplomacy, and triggered war; Iran pursued limited negotiations despite hardliners, laid out contingency plans for multiple war scenarios, and noted Oman’s mediation and the timing of leaders’ deaths and strikes amid a 12-day conflict.
Do HyunjungAraghchi says security breach behind Khamenei assassination remains and affects decision-making – Middle East Monitor
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the security breach behind the attempted attack on Khamenei’s headquarters remains unresolved and continues to influence Iran’s decision-making, describing the assault as occurring via a security breach during his visit on February 28 and noting casualties and ongoing uncertainty about the Supreme Leader’s whereabouts.
Rep. Self to Newsmax: Trump Has Decided Iran 'Is Not a Partner' | Newsmax.com
Rep. Keith Self told Newsmax that Trump now regards Iran as having no standing, prioritizing securing oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and restricting Iran’s nuclear program (specifically its 60%-enriched uranium), while noting the ongoing Gulf conflict risks and recent U.S. airstrikes and Iranian retaliation.

