Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026
Resolution Criteria
This bet resolves YES if "Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026" occurs by 2026-01-31T23:59, NO otherwise.
News
Sanctions, blockade and threat of strikes: US turns up pressure on Iran as Tehran warns against ‘bullying’ - The Statesman
The US is intensifying pressure on Iran with a broad economic crackdown—sanctioning about 60 entities and targeting Iran’s “dark fleet” of tankers—while leaving the option of military action around the Strait of Hormuz on the table, as Tehran condemns the coercive approach and Pakistan mediates discussions to restore regional stability and broaden Islamic-country cooperation.
Kamna AroraNew: Big Names in ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ Against Iran, Huge Reward for Info on Two Key Leaders - T-SPAN
The article reports that the U.S. is advancing “Operation Economic Outcast” against Iran by sanctioning nearly 60 entities and individuals involved in Iran’s illicit procurement, cyber operations, and petroleum networks, naming Iran-based groups allegedly aiding targeting and military activities, sanctioning actors across the illicit oil trade through a “dark fleet,” and offering a $10 million reward for information on IRGC leaders Ahmed Vahidi and Ali Abdollahi.
TSPAN P.Operation Economic Outcast: US Sanctions Iran's Economy - Global 1 News
The United States unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions on Iran to target digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping—with a “zero leakage” doctrine to cut all financial lifelines and extend penalties to crypto and global entities facilitating Iranian transactions, signaling a total economic war aimed at isolating Tehran even as China remains a critical, unresolved factor.
Global 1 NewsIranian Officials Defy Trump, Making Economic Showdown Certain – PJ Media
Iranian officials, led by parliament speaker Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf, remain defiant as the Trump administration labels an "economic D-Day," noting international allies (China, Russia, Oman, Qatar) and partners that could limit or complicate U.S. pressure, while urging continued firmness to achieve the goal.
Catherine SalgadoTrump unleashes 'Operation Economic Outcast' against Iran as Bessent warns nations not to do business: 'Tighten the noose'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the launch of “Operation Economic Outcast” to isolate Iran by pressuring other countries to halt oil, energy, and financial dealings, warn of a broad wave of sanctions, sanction over 60 entities linked to illicit activities, and push for a rapid global response with a two-path choice for Iran: global isolation or restoration of normal economic ties.
Josh Christenson and Ryan KingWhat is Operation Economic Outcast, the US's new plan for Iran? - ABC News
The article reports that the US is launching “Operation Economic Outcast,” a broad expansion of secondary sanctions aimed at severing Iran’s economic lifelines by targeting countries, entities, and sectors that deal with Iran (oil purchases, shipping, finance, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping), with threats to coerce governments and enablers to end ties, while noting uncertainty over specifics and potential regional risk.
US launches ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ to cut Iran’s economic lifeline | Al Jazeera Mirror
The US Treasury unveiled a global economic pressure campaign called “Operation Economic Outcast” to cut Iran’s revenues by targeting its oil, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, pledging secondary penalties for any entities facilitating Iranian transactions and urging global partners to choose sides against Tehran.
Al Jazeera StaffIran regime is metropolis of terrorism, says nuclear engineer
The article portrays Iran as pursuing a clandestine, weaponization-focused nuclear program from its inception, with repeated concealment from the IAEA, revelations by the National Council of Resistance and PMOI, ongoing enrichment alongside weaponization and delivery development, and concludes that the regime’s nuclear activities threaten Middle East peace and position Iran as “the metropolis of terrorism.”
newsroomTreasury Launches Unprecedented Campaign Against Iranian Regime on Economic D-Day
The Treasury, under President Trump, launched Operation Economic Outcast, a broad, multi-agency campaign to sever Iran’s economic lifelines by expanding sanctions across five sectors (digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping), sanctioning dozens of entities, targeting a proliferation and logistics network tied to MODAFL, and sanctioning shadow oil vessels to cripple Iran’s revenue streams.
JUST IN! US Rolls Out ‘Unprecedented Sanctions’ To Cripple Iranian Regime, Tehran Dismisses ‘Same Failed Tactics’, Vows Retaliation Against Gulf Nations Supporting Washington - People&Politics
The article reports that the US announced sweeping sanctions aimed at crippling Iran’s economy and prompting regime change, while Iran warned of retaliatory actions against Gulf states that cooperate and dismissed the measures as futile, with officials promising countermeasures if the sanctions proceed.
Felix Duru Mbah
