Event Image
January 31, 2026
Vol: $60

Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026

Outcome

%Chance

Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026

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Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This bet resolves YES if "Iran regime change by 31st Jan 2026" occurs by 2026-01-31T23:59, NO otherwise.

News

1 day ago

Netanyahu Says a Revolution in Iran Requires a Ground Offensive - Israel Security

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that a ground offensive is necessary to overthrow the Iranian regime amid ongoing tensions and conflicts in the region.

Jonathan Lis,
1 day ago

Iran Will Emerge Weaker but Nastier

The article predicts that Iran will emerge from the current conflict weakened but more violent and aggressive, with its regime likely to face increased repression domestically and bolster its missile and drone capabilities regionally, particularly through the Houthis in Yemen, despite suffering significant blows to its military and proxy networks.

Thomas Juneau
1 day ago

How the Iranian Regime Has Arrived at the Verge of Collapse

The Iranian regime is nearing collapse due to strategic miscalculations, overconfidence, and costly involvement in regional conflicts through its support for anti-Western militias, compounded by internal repression and international attacks, leading to a weakened state on the verge of collapse.

Ramyar Hassani
1 day ago

The failure of appeasement and the unstoppable rise of Iran's organized resistance |

The article highlights how Iran's organized resistance, particularly following recent nationwide uprisings, has evolved into a powerful, systematic force capable of dismantling the regime’s repression, exposing the failure of Western appeasement policies.

Matin Karim
1 day ago

Iran War: U.S. and Israel at Odds Over Regime Change

The article highlights the divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategies in Iran, with Trump advocating for a swift, limited approach akin to Venezuela, while Netanyahu aims for a prolonged campaign to permanently dismantle Iran's regional influence, revealing a fundamental disagreement over the war's objectives and duration.

Omar Shakir
1 day ago

How Is the Iranian Regime Still Standing? Because They've Had 47 Years to Plot Their 'Roach Infestation' – RedState

The Iranian regime remains resilient through a decentralized "mosaic defense" strategy, allowing its military and leadership to continue functioning and retaliate independently despite the targeted elimination of top officials by the US and Israel over the past year.

Bob Hoge
1 day ago

PM Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran war created conditions for regime change | The Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that recent US-Israeli military strikes have significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, creating conditions for potential regime change, while emphasizing ongoing efforts to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program and missile production amidst regional instability.

1 day ago

IDF sources: War could leave Iran with more radical, nuclear-ambitious regime | The Jerusalem Post

The article reports that despite significant military setbacks to Iran caused by Israeli and American strikes, there are concerns that Iran's regime could become more radical and nuclear-ambitious, especially under the potentially more extreme leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei, raising fears of Iran developing or using small-scale nuclear weapons even as efforts to weaken its nuclear infrastructure continue.

1 day ago

The United States Is Trying to Strangle Iran's Economy, But Iran Can Shift to a War Economy Instead

Despite U.S. sanctions and economic pressure, Iran has historically relied on bottom-up resilience rather than centralized wartime planning, but with the current escalation toward military strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, Tehran may shift to a war economy to sustain itself amid ongoing conflict.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
1 day ago

Neither the US nor Israel will 'succeed in replacing the Iranian regime,' retired US general says - AOL

A retired U.S. general predicts that neither the U.S. nor Israel will succeed in replacing Iran's regime due to Iran's deep leadership and security structures, amid ongoing military operations targeting Iran's leadership, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his replacement by his son Mojtaba Khamenei.

AOL

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