Fed decision in January
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
25 plus bps decrease
25 plus bps decrease
No change
No change
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to what Fed decides in January FOMC
News
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's March 2026 Press Conference: Key Takeaways (2026)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's March 2026 press conference highlighted the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty, inflation concerns driven by geopolitical tensions, and the need to balance maximum employment with inflation control.
Monetary policy decisions
The ECB's Governing Council has maintained interest rates unchanged amid heightened uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict, with inflation projected to average around 2.6% in 2026 driven by higher energy prices, and will adjust its monetary policy based on ongoing data and risk assessments.
European Central BankMarch FOMC meeting: Policy on hold, uncertainty front and center | Principal Asset Management
The March FOMC held rates steady amid heightened uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict, emphasizing energy price volatility, tariffs, and labor market fragility, with policymakers maintaining a neutral stance and projecting modest economic growth and inflation revisions.
Traders see little chance of rate cut this year following Fed decision
Following the Fed's optimistic outlook and unchanged stance amid escalating Middle East tensions, investors reacted negatively, dismissing expectations of rate cuts this year and triggering a "taper tantrum" as market expectations for easing monetary policy were significantly reduced.
Jeff CoxFed March Decision Recap: Powell's Stance on Rates, Inflation, and Economic Outlook (2026)
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% reflects a cautious approach amid global uncertainties, with Chairman Powell emphasizing stability and signaling no immediate rate cuts, which has significant implications for the mortgage industry and economic outlook in 2026.
Another oil price jump further pushes out Fed rate-cut odds | Reuters
Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and recent conflicts have heightened inflation concerns, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious stance with expectations of limited interest rate cuts this year amid uncertain economic outlooks.
Howard SchneiderFed Chair Jerome Powell's March 2026 Press Conference: Key Takeaways (2026)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's March 2026 press conference highlighted the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid geopolitical tensions, inflation uncertainties, and the need to balance maximum employment with inflation control.
3 reasons the Federal Reserve's interest rate pause is worrying investors - CBS News
The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes amid escalating Middle East tensions and uncertain economic outlook has caused investor concern, with fears that the central bank remains paralyzed by geopolitical risks, inflation uncertainties, and a stalled job market, potentially limiting future rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's March 2026 Press Conference: Key Takeaways (2026)
The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% in March 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty, inflation concerns driven by geopolitical tensions, and a delicate balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation.
Fed's March Decision Recap: Powell's Comments and Market Updates (2026)
The Federal Reserve's March 2026 decision to hold interest rates steady, amid cautious remarks from Chair Powell and global economic uncertainties, signals a measured approach to balancing inflation and employment, with market volatility reflecting ongoing concerns about future rate movements and economic stability.

