Fed decision in January

MNI POLICY: Fed Inclined To Hike Despite CPI Brea...- 07-20-2026 | MNI

Fed policymakers are increasingly leaning toward raising interest rates later this year even as June inflation cooled, with a single hotter-than-expected report capable of triggering a hike.

The $40 trillion trap: Disinflation is not deliverance

The article argues that despite some disinflation, the U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal crisis with $40 trillion in debt, a $1.4 trillion annualized deficit, and $24 billion weekly in interest payments, which limits the Federal Reserve’s room to tighten and risks either persistent inflation or financial instability.

Inflation Slowed in June, but These 4 Words From Kevin Warsh Suggest Interest Rate Hikes Are Still a Possibility This Year | The Motley Fool

Inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, but Fed chair Kevin Warsh warns “one data point” isn’t enough and says more data is needed, signaling that rate hikes remain likely this year despite the encouraging CPI reading.

Gas Tops $4 Again, Oil Hits $82. Here's Why the Fed Has a Big Problem - 24/7 Wall St.

Gas prices rose above $4 per gallon as WTI crude topped $82/barrel, renewing inflationary pressures and complicating the Fed’s stance by linking energy costs to broader inflation and growth concerns amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve's July Inflation Forecast Is In, and It Contains a Surprising Red Flag | The Motley Fool

The Motley Fool reports that while headline inflation is expected to dip in July due to lower oil prices, the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation remains sticky and may prompt further rate hikes, which could undercut the AI-driven stock rally despite a rally in major indices.

In 15 Words, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Just Issued a Warning to Wall Street | The Motley Fool

Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned Wall Street in 15 words that another higher inflation print would be treated as a signal to act, a stance echoed by other FOMC officials who suggest inflation persistence could lead to a rate hike, with markets pricing in a likely hold at the July 29 meeting but potential tightening later if inflation doesn’t cool.

Federal Reserve Signals Prolonged Period of Elevated Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% for the near term, with Chair Kevin Warsh signaling no near-term cuts and the FOMC prioritizing price stability, while market odds show roughly an 80% chance of at least one rate increase later this year.

Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2026 amid persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market, with a mixed policy signal under new leadership and a low probability of rate cuts this year, though a hike remains more likely than a cut if policy moves.

Fed To Hold Rates Steady With Upside Hike Risk, TD Securities Says

TD Securities expects the Fed to hold rates steady with a hawkish bias and an upside risk of a future rate hike if inflation (especially services) stays sticky and the labor market remains tight, implying rates could stay higher for longer and delaying cuts beyond 2025 depending on incoming data.