Fed decision in January
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
25 plus bps decrease
25 plus bps decrease
No change
No change
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to what Fed decides in January FOMC
News
Interest Rate Announcement - Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada announced its latest interest rate decision on March 18, 2026, providing insights into the factors influencing the overnight rate target during its scheduled quarterly updates.
The Fed is likely to hold rates steady with volatile oil prices and poor US jobs performance - AOL
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in March amid volatile oil prices caused by Iran's conflict and weak US job growth, with policymakers closely monitoring inflation and economic projections ahead of Jerome Powell's departure as chair.
AOLHome | Bank of England
The Bank of England's latest updates include a speech on reforming cross-border payments, the announcement of wildlife images on upcoming banknotes following public consultation, the appointment of Katharine Braddick as Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation, and various resources on banknotes, financial stability, markets, monetary policy, and payment systems.
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17, 2026, citing rising inflation pressures, stronger domestic demand, and global uncertainties, particularly related to the Middle East conflict, which pose risks of sustained inflation above target levels.
March Fed Decision: FOMC Likely to Hold Rates With US-Iran War - Business Insider
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in March amid volatile oil prices caused by the Iran conflict and recent poor US job data, while also releasing its first economic projections of 2026.
Allie Kelly, Madison HoffFed Holds Rates After the First Meeting This Year | Mortgage Response | Guaranteed Rate Affinity
The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% after its January meeting, signaling a cautious approach amid expectations of rate cuts later in 2026, which could influence mortgage rates and homeownership decisions.
Alex Ceko on 1/29/2026RBA Interest rates decision: Reserve Bank lifts interest rates to 4.1 per cent
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to 4.1% in a closely divided 5-4 vote, citing persistent inflation pressures exacerbated by global uncertainties, which will likely lead to higher mortgage repayments and economic challenges, including potential recession risks.
Shane WrightUS: FOMC Meeting Begins - CME Group
The article explains that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times annually to set U.S. monetary policy, influencing markets through decisions on interest rates and asset purchases, with immediate announcements following each meeting.
US Jobs Report: January 2026 - What to Expect (2026)
The January 2026 US jobs report is expected to show modest monthly job gains around 50,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%, amid ongoing slow growth, demographic shifts, and economic uncertainties influencing hiring trends.
Inflation Update: Consumer Prices Rise, But Below Expectations (2026)
U.S. consumer prices increased by 2.4% annually in January—below expectations—leading to optimism about easing inflation and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, amid a mixed economic outlook with ongoing inflation concerns and a resilient economy.

