Fed decision in January

US banks show little risk shift after eSLR relief - Risk.net

US banks largely refrained from shifting into lower-risk assets in Q1 2026 after most adopted the revised enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), despite several of the eight US G-SIBs opting in to the framework.

The Federal Reserve significantly reduces forward guidance, institutions develop AI tools to predict policy trends | Bitget News

The article reports that since Kevin Warsh became Fed chair, the central bank has dramatically reduced forward guidance and statement length, spurring increased use of AI tools and dashboards by institutions to track policy and forecast risks, while market forecasts diverge and volatility rises as analysts adjust to the opaque communication reforms.

Commerce Dept. methodology tweak could lower key inflation gauge by 0.2 percentage point - The Herald Business

The US Commerce Department plans to revise three PCE components—asset management services, software, and legal services—retroactively to five years, a move that could lower the core PCE inflation reading by about 0.2 percentage point and potentially give the Fed more policy flexibility.

高盛：6月通胀已消除美联储7月加息可能性，沃什需要详解应对机制，避免金融波动_新浪财经_新浪网

高盛称6月核心PCE同比3.3%、核心CPI2.6%、PCE月增0.18%等数据“有效消除”7月加息可能，但新任美联储主席沃什仍需更清晰地阐明政策反应函数以有效引导市场预期，避免金融条件过度波动；若通胀再度高于预期或失业率下降，后续仍有加息可能，且全年情景分布显示降息概率仍低于市场定价。

Fed Funds Rate Outlook Hangs in the Balance After June CPI Surprise

The June CPI slowdown to 3.5% YoY and a 0.4% MoM drop reduced near-term odds of a July Fed rate hike to about 10%, but officials warn inflation risks remain and a few months of cooling data are needed before pausing or hiking, leaving the July FOMC meeting as the pivotal point for the Fed’s policy path.

5 Stocks to Buy Before the Fed's Next Move - Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) - Benzinga

The article identifies five stocks to consider ahead of the Fed’s next move—WM, Eaton, Toyota (TM), Ares Capital, and Deutsche Bank (DB)—anchored by Carlyle’s midyear outlook that inflation remains politically charged, AI-related spending could dominate investment patterns, Japan’s normalization supports exporters and overseas earnings, credit leverage remains a risk, and Europe’s capital-market integration could unlock up to €8 trillion for productive investments.

US Regulators Blow Past GENIUS Act Deadline, Leaving Stablecoin Rules in Limbo — BigGo Finance

U.S. regulators missed the July 18, 2026 GENIUS Act deadline to finalize implementing rules for the stablecoin framework, leaving a $310 billion market operating under an incomplete federal regime as many proposals remain open to public comment and the January 18, 2027 effective date approaches, with state regimes, OCC/FDIC/FDIC/Federal Reserve/NCUA rules still in flux and a broader CLARITY Act fight looming.

Economic Indicators Point To Fed Being Patience On Rate Hike

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in July amid lower gasoline prices, while inflation expectations cooled and industrial activity slowed, supporting the Fed’s data-dependent stance to stay patient and avoid aggressive rate hikes.

US President Donald Trump says US hitting Iran 'very hard’

President Donald Trump said the United States is “hitting Iran very hard again tonight” in retaliation for recent events and to honor fallen service members, as Iran reported oil tanker explosions and threats in the Strait of Hormuz, while global markets reacted with rising oil prices and cautious currency moves ahead of upcoming ECB decision.

Fed July Rate Hold Probability at 85.6%

The CME FedWatch indicates an 85.6% chance the Fed will hold rates in July (14.4% for a 25 bp hike), with probabilities by September of 38.5% for no change, 53.5% for a 25 bp hike, and 7.9% for a 50 bp hike.